Sunday, August 23, 2009

just fyi

Gambler's Fallacy:

The gambler's fallacy...is the belief that if deviations from expected behaviour are observed in repeated independent trials of some random process then these deviations are likely to be evened out by opposite deviations in the future. For example, if a fair coin is tossed repeatedly and tails comes up a larger number of times than is expected, a gambler may incorrectly believe that this means that heads is more likely in future tosses.[1] Such an expectation could be mistakenly referred to as being "due". This is an informal fallacy.

The gambler's fallacy implicitly involves an assertion of negative correlation between trials of the random process and therefore involves a denial of the exchangeability of outcomes of the random process.


So yeah. Don't just assume that because so many bad things have happened more can't possibly be on their way.

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